CBI survey finds tentative steadying in some sectors but consumer services still falling sharply

A net balance of minus 31 per cent of consumer services firms expect business volumes to decline over the next three months — the starkest figure in the Confederation of British Industry’s latest round of sector surveys. Compare that with business and professional services, where the expected balance has narrowed to minus 3 per cent, pointing to near-stabilisation after months of sharper falls.

The figures show a sector landscape split firmly in two. Manufacturing’s expected output balance stands at minus 7 per cent in August 2026, a marked improvement on the minus 30 per cent recorded in July. Distribution — covering retail and wholesale — sits at minus 21 per cent. The CBI describes conditions as “less negative” in business and professional services and manufacturing, while consumer services volumes actually fell faster in the three months to August, recording a balance of minus 42 per cent, before the expected balance for the coming quarter eases slightly to minus 31 per cent.

These are net balances — the share of firms reporting expected increases minus those expecting decreases — so they measure the breadth of pessimism rather than a precise fall in output or turnover. No county-level CBI data are published, so the figures cannot be applied directly to Kent.

But the national picture carries real weight for Kent. The county’s logistics sector, tied to the M20, M2 and the port at Dover, sits squarely within the distribution category where the minus 21 per cent balance signals continued weakness in freight and retail supply chains. And with consumer services at minus 31 per cent, businesses in Margate, Broadstairs and Herne Bay — heavily reliant on hospitality, tourism and leisure — face the prospect of further volume declines outside peak summer trading.

For Kent workers in manufacturing at industrial parks around Ashford, Sittingbourne and Swale, the improvement from minus 30 per cent to minus 7 per cent in manufacturing expectations offers some reassurance. Yet even a minus 7 per cent balance still means more firms expect output to fall than to rise — stabilisation is not recovery.

The overall services volume balance across the UK eased to around minus 19 per cent in the quarter to August, compared with roughly minus 21 per cent in the quarter to July. Earlier in 2026 the picture was considerably darker: the June survey put business and professional services volumes at minus 35 per cent and consumer services at minus 31 per cent, while the February survey found business and professional services optimism had recovered to minus 3 from around minus 50 in November 2025, before sentiment collapsed again to roughly minus 46 per cent by May.

The Kent & Medway Growth Hub and local chambers of commerce are likely to face continued demand from small businesses in retail, hospitality and distribution seeking advice on cash flow and income diversification, given that the CBI’s own commentary warns risks remain from weak consumer demand and elevated borrowing costs.