CBI Surveys Point to Fragile Steadying, Not Growth

The Confederation of British Industry says its latest business surveys show conditions may be stabilising, but net balances for expected private-sector output remain firmly negative.

Between minus 17 and minus 21 per cent — that’s the range of net balances the CBI recorded for three-month private-sector activity expectations in 2025, meaning more firms anticipate falling output than rising output. The figures show conditions at some of their weakest since at least November 2022 across services, manufacturing and distribution.

Alpesh Paleja, Deputy Chief Economist at the CBI, said the organisation’s surveys “paint a picture of a tentative move towards stabilisation, rather than strong, sustained growth.” That’s a careful distinction. Stabilisation from a low base isn’t recovery — it’s simply a slower rate of decline becoming less pronounced.

Cost pressures are proving especially stubborn in services. Businesses have pointed to higher employer National Insurance contributions, increases in the National Living Wage, and uncertainty around new employment legislation as factors squeezing margins and dampening hiring plans. Consumer spending remains cautious, and global tariff uncertainty — especially around US trade policy — is adding to hesitation on investment.

For Kent, the picture is direct. The county’s position as a gateway to Europe through its major ports and transport corridors makes it more exposed than most to the trade uncertainty the CBI flags. Local businesses — chiefly small and medium-sized firms — face the same National Insurance and wage cost pressures cited in the surveys, influencing decisions on staffing, pricing and investment. Kent County Council tracks unemployment, workplace earnings and Gross Value Added using ONS data, and those indicators have broadly followed national trends over 2021 to 2025, suggesting any national stagnation shows up in Kent’s own growth figures.

Yet official ONS data tells a slightly different story at the headline level — low but sometimes positive GDP growth, inflation easing compared with post-pandemic peaks, and a labour market that, while loosening, remains relatively tight. The Bank of England has begun a gradual rate-cutting cycle after a prolonged period of elevated borrowing costs, which business groups including the CBI have welcomed, though they warn that uncertainty continues to weigh on investment.

The CBI has urged government to focus on what it calls “growth levers” within its control: an ambitious target for research and development spending, investment in skills, and reducing regulatory burdens. Whether those calls translate into policy shifts is unclear.