FA Trophy · Third Qualifying Round
Saturday 26 September, kickoff 15:00
Correction — 26 September 2026: An earlier version of this preview, published on 24 September, described this match as the FA Trophy final. It was a third qualifying round tie. The round was mislabelled in the data feed used to compile the preview. The preview has been amended; it also gave the wrong date for the sides’ most recent meeting, which has been corrected. The error is recorded on our Corrections page.
Saturday brings a Kent derby in the FA Trophy third qualifying round, as Ashford United host Deal Town at 15:00 BST on 26 September. The winners will go into the draw for the first round proper, which is scheduled for Saturday 24 October. Both clubs won their second qualifying round ties on 12 September — Ashford 3-1 away to Ascot United, and Deal 3-0 at home to Sheppey United.
The form guide
Both sides arrive in good form. Ashford United have won their last two matches, carrying a 100% form rating into the tie. Their defensive record has been particularly encouraging, with a 79% defensive rating pointing to a side that is difficult to break down and well-organised at the back. Their attacking output sits at 50%, suggesting they are functional rather than free-scoring going forward, but in a knockout tie pragmatism often counts for more than flair.
Deal Town can point to an equally impressive recent run, also with two wins from two and a matching 100% form rating. Where Deal edge their opponents in the statistics is in defensive solidity — their 86% defensive rating is the stronger of the two. Like Ashford, their attack is rated at 50%, so goals may not flow freely, and the quality of their defensive structure could prove decisive if the match becomes a tight, low-scoring affair. On paper, this is an evenly matched tie.
The head-to-head record
| Date | Competition | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2012 | FA Cup | Deal Town | 1-2 | Ashford United |
| 7 Sept 2024 | FA Trophy | Deal Town | 0-1 | Ashford United |
| 26 Nov 2024 | Non League Div One – Isthmian South East | Deal Town | 1-3 | Ashford United |
| 8 Feb 2025 | Non League Div One – Isthmian South East | Ashford United | 3-0 | Deal Town |
| 16 Sept 2025 | Non League Div One – Isthmian South East | Ashford United | 2-1 | Deal Town |
History, it must be said, favours Ashford United when these two sides meet. Looking back across the last five encounters between the clubs, Ashford have won on every single occasion — a remarkable record that will not have gone unnoticed in either dressing room. The most recent meeting, on 16 September 2025, saw Ashford run out 2-1 winners, while earlier clashes produced a 3-0 victory in February 2025 and a 3-1 win in November 2024. Go further back and the pattern holds: a 1-0 Ashford victory in September 2024 and a 2-1 win stretching all the way back to August 2012 complete a head-to-head record that reads five played, five won for the Nuts and Bolts.
For Deal Town, breaking that sequence will be the psychological mountain to climb before a ball is even kicked. Two of those defeats were by a single goal, however — 1-0 in September 2024 and 2-1 in September 2025 — which shows Deal are capable of making Ashford work hard. The head-to-head data gives Ashford an 80/20 advantage in this fixture, but knockout ties have a habit of rewriting history.
The men in the dugout
Details of the managers of both sides were not confirmed in the data available ahead of the tie, and it would be inappropriate to speculate on the individuals in the dugout.
Players to watch
No individual has emerged as a standout top scorer from either side in the data available, and in a tie of this nature an unheralded performer — a set-piece specialist, a combative midfielder, or a goalkeeper at the top of their game — may prove to be the decisive figure.
The prediction
Bookmaker advice: Combo Double chance : Ashford United or draw and +1.5 goals
Synthesising the available data, this tie looks difficult to call. The form comparison is level at 50/50, the attacking ratings of both sides are identical, and while Deal Town hold a slight edge in defensive solidity, Ashford’s head-to-head record — an 80/20 historical advantage — cannot be ignored. The probability model places the home side at 45% and a draw at 45%, with Deal Town given a 10% chance of victory in 90 minutes.
The data points toward Ashford United or a draw, with goals likely to be at a premium given the defensive ratings of both sides. On balance, Ashford’s five wins from five in the meetings listed give them a narrow advantage, but Deal Town are more than capable of making this a close contest.
Preview data via api-football. Form, head-to-head, standings, manager and prediction figures sourced live at the time of compilation; squad and team-news availability subject to last-minute change.