ONS provisional figures show net international migration dropped from 612,500 to 211,700 in a single year, with the natural population change figure subject to verification from the ONS mid-2025 bulletin.
Net international migration to England and Wales fell to 211,700 in the year to mid-2025, down from 612,500 in the previous year — a drop of around two-thirds, according to figures posted by the Office for National Statistics. That compares with a peak of roughly 944,000 for the UK as a whole around the year ending March 2023, making the latest figure a dramatic reversal over just two years. The natural change figure — births minus deaths — for England and Wales over the same period is subject to verification from the ONS mid-2025 bulletin before publication.
The ONS figures show the fall has been driven largely by fewer arrivals among non-EU nationals coming for work-related reasons, alongside policy changes including restrictions on student dependants and higher salary thresholds for work visas. The provisional UK-wide total for the year ending June 2025 was 204,000, compared with 649,000 for the year ending June 2024. ONS stresses that recent estimates remain provisional and subject to revision as methods and data sources are updated.
For Kent households and businesses, the shift matters in several ways. Kent County Council and Medway Council use ONS population estimates — which incorporate migration and natural change — to plan school places, housing, social care and transport. A sustained fall in net migration could slow population growth across the county, with knock-on effects for funding allocations tied to resident numbers. Sectors that rely heavily on international workers, including health and social care, agriculture, hospitality and logistics, may face tighter labour supply if lower migration levels persist.
Natural change alone is adding relatively little to the population, according to ONS data, though the precise figure for England and Wales over this period requires confirmation from the ONS mid-2025 bulletin. In parts of Kent with older age profiles, deaths already outnumber births, making migration the main engine of any local population growth.
Economic analysts have warned that sharp cuts in net migration could worsen staff shortages in key public services, while government has pointed to the decline as evidence that tighter visa rules are working. Both claims rest on trends that, by ONS’s own account, are still being measured and refined.
Source: @ONS