Latest ONS data show retail sales volumes increasing by 0.7% in March, beating analysts’ forecasts but remaining below pre-pandemic levels.
Shoppers across Great Britain are spending more than economists predicted, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. The data reveal retail sales volumes jumped by 0.7% in March 2026, a welcome rebound after February’s revised 0.6% decline.
Grant Fitzner, ONS Chief Economist, commented on the figures as they were released, highlighting the positive momentum in consumer spending patterns.
The Numbers Behind the Recovery
The March increase helped drive overall growth for the first quarter of 2026. Retail sales volumes rose by 1.6% in Quarter 1 compared with the final quarter of 2025, suggesting consumers are gradually regaining confidence.
However, the retail sector continues to face challenges, with February’s data showing a 0.4% decline in sales volumes according to official ONS figures, reflecting the ongoing volatility in consumer spending patterns.
Clothing and outdoor retailers are leading the charge, with good weather cited as a key driver behind increased footfall and spending.
Mixed Signals from the High Street
The picture isn’t entirely rosy, however. Deloitte’s commentary on the figures reveals that while recent months have beaten expectations, retail sales volumes for 2025 as a whole remained stubbornly below pre-pandemic levels.
At the same time, the consultancy firm described sales as “better than expected in the final month of the year” during the height of Christmas trading. Yet the so-called “Golden Quarter” – the final three months of the year – actually saw a 0.3% quarterly drop in retail sales volumes.
This suggests consumers remain cautious about discretionary spending, even as they occasionally splash out on essentials and seasonal items.
Weather Boosts Seasonal Spending
The ONS Retail Sales Index, which measures both the quantity and value of goods bought across Great Britain’s retail sector, captures these shifting patterns month by month. The data includes detailed breakdowns by store type, from food retailers to online platforms.
Clothing and outdoor retailers have chiefly benefited from favourable weather conditions, according to industry analysis. This seasonal boost has helped offset some of the caution seen in other retail categories.
The figures are seasonally adjusted to account for typical patterns throughout the year, making the underlying trends clearer for economists and policymakers.
Comparing Global Trends
Across the Atlantic, US retail and food services sales also showed growth, rising 0.5% month-on-month and 4.9% year-on-year in April 2026. While not directly comparable to UK volume indices, which adjust for price changes, the international data suggests a broader pattern of consumer resilience.
The ONS regularly publishes these retail sales bulletins alongside commentary from economists like Fitzner, who help interpret the headline movements and sectoral patterns for businesses and policymakers.
Cost-of-Living Pressures Persist
Despite the positive monthly figures, the reality for many households remains challenging. Deloitte’s analysis emphasises that sales volumes staying below pre-COVID levels reflects ongoing cost-of-living pressures.
Many families are still prioritising essential purchases over discretionary spending, even as occasional promotions and seasonal factors provide temporary boosts to retail figures.
Source: @ONS
Key Takeaways
- Retail sales volumes rose 0.7% in March 2026, beating forecasts after February’s 0.6% decline
- First quarter 2026 saw 1.6% growth compared to the previous quarter, driven partly by good weather boosting clothing and outdoor retailers
- Sales volumes remain below pre-pandemic levels despite recent gains, reflecting continued household caution over discretionary spending
What This Means for Kent Residents
The national retail recovery suggests improved trading conditions for high streets and retail parks across Kent, from Maidstone’s bustling town centre to Canterbury’s tourist-focused shops. Coastal areas like Whitstable, Margate and Folkestone could especially benefit if the weather-driven boost to clothing and outdoor retailers continues through the warmer months. Kent households should expect to see more competitive pricing and promotions as retailers work to maintain the momentum, though many families will likely remain selective about non-essential purchases given that spending power hasn’t fully returned to pre-pandemic levels.