ONS Says Census 2021 NEET Data Cannot Be Compared with Labour Force Survey Figures

The Office for National Statistics has warned that its Census 2021 estimates of young people not in education, employment, or training use different methods and time periods to its Labour Force Survey series, making direct comparison between the two misleading.

The ONS posted a direct warning this week that Census 2021 NEET figures — covering young people aged 16 to 24 who are not in education, employment, or training — are not comparable with its established Labour Force Survey estimates. The two series differ in data source, methodology, and the time periods they reflect, meaning any attempt to track changes in youth disengagement by placing the figures side by side would produce a distorted picture.

The gap between the two approaches is sizeable. Census 2021, which took place on 21 March 2021 during the coronavirus pandemic — when education and employment arrangements were widely disrupted — provides a single-day snapshot. The Labour Force Survey, by contrast, runs continuously and produces quarterly estimates weighted to mid-year population figures, with a time series stretching back many years. The Census-based analysis linked records for more than 4.7 million young people in England aged 16 to 24, achieving a linkage rate above 90 per cent by connecting census responses with NHS Hospital Episode Statistics and HMRC earnings data. That gives it a richness the LFS sample cannot match at local level — but it cannot tell you whether things are getting better or worse over time.

For Kent, the distinction matters practically. Kent County Council and Medway Council both carry statutory duties to track participation in education or training for 16- and 17-year-olds and to identify young people who are NEET. Census 2021 data offers detailed breakdowns for local authority areas — including Canterbury, Maidstone, Thanet and other Kent districts — that LFS-based national figures simply cannot provide at that resolution. But trend comparisons and benchmarking against national rates should rely on the LFS series, not the Census snapshot.

The LFS-based NEET methodology was developed jointly by ONS, the Department for Education, and the Department for Work and Pensions, with a harmonised approach that apportions missing responses by single year of age and gender. DfE’s own NEET statistics for England use the same method. Anyone quoting Census-based NEET rates alongside those figures — chiefly in public debate about areas like Kent — risks conflating two series that were never designed to be read together.

Some researchers and policy commentators have argued that clearer public guidance is needed to prevent exactly this kind of misreading, above all where local or regional comparisons are involved. Youth organisations working with NEET young people in Kent have separately called for data to be presented accessibly and with appropriate caveats when quoted in policy discussions.

ONS advises using Census 2021 NEET data to understand detailed characteristics and identify concentrations of NEET young people at local level — useful for bodies such as the Kent and Medway Integrated Care Board, further education colleges, and Jobcentre Plus offices targeting support. For monitoring how NEET rates are moving over time, the LFS series remains the appropriate source.