ONS sets out how it will measure AI’s impact on the UK economy

The ONS has released a methodology document explaining how it will compile what it calls an AI thematic account — a statistical framework for capturing how artificial intelligence flows through the UK economy. The release, classified as Official Statistics and scheduled for full publication on 21 September 2026, does not yet provide headline figures on AI’s current economic contribution. Those estimates are expected to develop as the account and its underlying data collections mature.

The thematic account concept pulls together data on a cross-cutting subject that spans multiple sectors, industries and asset types. In this case, that means tracking AI-related investment, production of AI-enabled services, and how businesses across different industries are actually using the technology — including the role of supporting infrastructure such as data centres.

The approach follows the 2025 System of National Accounts definition of artificial intelligence, which covers computer program capabilities that emulate human recognition, reasoning, communication and prediction. ONS is developing the account alongside plans to restart the Digital Economy Survey, which will feed improved data into national accounts and balance of payments figures.

The gap this work is trying to fill is real. UK government analysis has projected that AI and machine learning adoption alone could add 2.98 per cent to the UK’s real GDP by 2035 — around £79.3 billion in additional output, driven mainly by productivity gains. Scenario analysis from an independent UK economic research institute puts the longer-term potential higher still, estimating AI could raise national income by between 5 per cent and 14 per cent by 2050, with a central estimate of around 11 per cent, equivalent to more than £300 billion per year in today’s terms. But these are modelling projections, not verified ONS estimates, and the thematic account methodology release does not endorse or reproduce them.

On jobs, a UK government-commissioned study estimated that around 7 per cent of existing UK jobs could be displaced by AI over five years, rising to around 18 per cent after ten years and nearly 30 per cent after 20 years, based on total employment of about 32.4 million in 2018. Critics and independent analysts have questioned whether such projections are keeping pace with how quickly AI adoption is actually moving, and whether measurement gaps could lead to mis-calibrated policy responses.

The methodology release sits within ONS’s broader Surveys and Economic Statistics Improvement Plan, which also covers cloud services and digital infrastructure. For now, the figures show a statistics framework being built — not yet results from it.