UK Government Borrowing Runs Ahead of Forecast at Start of 2026-27

The Office for Budget Responsibility has confirmed that public sector borrowing in the first quarter of 2026-27 is running slightly above its official forecast, after ONS figures showed April 2026 borrowing hit £24.3 billion — £3.4 billion more than expected.

That £24.3 billion figure for April 2026 is approximately 24.6 per cent higher than the same month a year earlier, according to the Office for National Statistics. The OBR posted its monthly commentary on the public finances on Monday, flagging the overshoot against its November 2025 Economic and Fiscal Outlook projections.

The April overshoot sits against a more encouraging annual picture. Borrowing for the full financial year ending March 2026 came in at £129.0 billion — provisionally £3.7 billion below the OBR’s own forecast of £132.7 billion, and 15.0 per cent lower than the year before. At 4.2 per cent of GDP, it was the lowest borrowing share since the financial year ending March 2020, though still above pre-pandemic levels.

But the new financial year has started on a harder footing. The OBR’s November 2025 forecast already accounted for Budget policy measures expected to add £5.9 billion directly to borrowing in 2026-27, partly offset by around £2.0 billion in indirect savings — including lower inflation. Government debt is forecast at around 95 per cent of GDP in 2025-26, roughly twice the average for advanced economies, rising to around 96 per cent by 2030-31.

So what does any of this mean for Kent? In the short term, probably not much — a single quarter of borrowing running marginally above forecast is unlikely to trigger immediate changes. Yet sustained deviations from the forecast path could increase pressure on future Spending Reviews, which directly shape the grants available to Kent County Council, Medway Council, and district authorities such as Canterbury City Council and Thanet District Council. NHS Kent and Medway Integrated Care Board would also sit within any tighter national health settlements that followed.

The OBR’s long-run plan is to bring borrowing down from 4.5 per cent of GDP in 2025-26 to 1.9 per cent by 2030-31. Whether the early 2026-27 figures represent a brief bump or a sign of deeper pressure on that path is something the coming months’ data will need to answer.