UK manufacturers expect slower price rises in September, CBI survey finds

Selling-price expectations fell from +22 per cent to +12 per cent between August and September 2026, though the balance remained above its long-run average of +8 per cent.

UK manufacturers expected noticeably slower selling-price growth in September 2026, according to the Confederation of British Industry’s Industrial Trends Survey published on 22 September. The balance of firms anticipating price rises over falls dropped to +12 per cent, from +22 per cent in August — the weakest reading since October 2024, when the measure stood at zero.

The September figure also marks a sharp retreat from the recent peak of +27 per cent recorded in January 2026. Yet it still sits four percentage points above the survey’s long-run average of +8 per cent, suggesting cost and margin pressures haven’t fully unwound.

Factory order books told a more encouraging story. The orders balance improved to -9 in September, compared with -25 in August — its strongest reading since July 2023.

One important caveat: the CBI measure captures the balance between manufacturers expecting prices to rise and those expecting them to fall over the following three months. It’s not a direct forecast of UK consumer price inflation, and the Office for National Statistics publishes separate Consumer Prices Index and Producer Price Index data for that picture. No independently verified ONS inflation figure for September 2026 was available at the time of publication.

So what does the survey actually show? Reduced short-term pricing pressure compared with August, alongside a meaningful improvement in order books — but a manufacturing sector where price expectations remain historically elevated rather than back to normal.