The Confederation of British Industry’s Distributive Trades Survey shows retail selling price inflation accelerated in the year to August, reaching a balance of plus 30 per cent — up from plus 20 per cent in May — though still below the long-run average of plus 41 per cent.
The gap between where prices are and where they’ve historically been is narrowing. The CBI’s August 2024 survey puts the net balance of retailers reporting higher selling prices at plus 30 per cent, compared with plus 20 per cent in May. That’s a meaningful jump — but it’s still short of the long-run average balance of plus 41 per cent, which the CBI uses as a benchmark for what a “normal” inflationary period looks like. According to the CBI survey, retailers expected that gap to narrow further, with selling price inflation forecast to ease in September to a balance of around plus 15 per cent.
The survey balance figures aren’t the same as a Consumer Prices Index rate — they represent the net percentage of firms reporting higher prices minus those reporting lower ones. So a reading of plus 30 means considerably more retailers are raising prices than cutting them, without translating directly to a CPI figure. ONS data has broadly indicated CPI running above the 2 per cent target across much of 2024 and into 2025, which is broadly consistent with what the business survey is showing.
For Kent households, the direction of travel matters as much as the precise numbers. Higher retail selling prices feed through to everyday costs — food, clothing, household goods — on high streets in Maidstone, Canterbury, Ashford and Dartford, and in larger retail destinations such as Bluewater. Retailers passing on rising input costs, wages and rents tend to do so gradually, but the cumulative effect on disposable incomes can be sharp, especially for lower-income families already stretched by several years of above-target inflation.
By 2025, the picture had intensified. Later CBI surveys reported the balance for average selling prices reaching around plus 65 — the fastest pace of retail price increases since November 2023. That’s a sharp move from the plus 30 recorded in August 2024, suggesting that the easing retailers anticipated in late summer did not fully materialise.
The Bank of England monitors surveys like this alongside ONS data when setting interest rates. A sustained rise in the selling price balance, especially one that pushes back towards or beyond the long-run average, is the kind of signal that keeps rate-setters cautious about cutting borrowing costs too quickly.
Source: @CBItweets