CBI Survey Shows Manufacturing Down 30 Per Cent as UK Business Volumes Fall Sharply

CBI quarterly survey data show double-digit declines across manufacturing, distribution and services, with Kent’s logistics corridor and visitor economy among the areas likely to feel the pressure.

Manufacturing has taken the hardest hit, with a net balance of minus 30 per cent of firms reporting lower volumes — the sharpest fall across all four sectors tracked in the latest Confederation of British Industry survey. Distribution recorded minus 20 per cent, consumer services minus 16 per cent, and business and professional services minus 14 per cent. The CBI posted the figures on its official account, noting only “tentative signs” that the pace of decline in services sub-sectors may slow.

These are survey balances — the share of firms reporting a fall in volumes minus those reporting a rise — rather than official output figures from the Office for National Statistics. The ONS Index of Services recorded 0.0 per cent monthly growth in January 2026, suggesting flat rather than collapsing official output. But the CBI’s own quarter-to-May survey, published separately, put business and professional services volumes at minus 18 per cent on the same balance basis, with consumer services at minus 36 per cent and firms expecting conditions to worsen further in the following quarter.

Services account for around 80 per cent of UK gross value added, according to ONS analysis, so sustained negative balances across the sector carry real weight. S&P Global’s composite purchasing managers’ index has at times fallen below the neutral threshold of 50 — a reading of 48.5 was recorded — confirming that the CBI data are consistent with broader signals of private sector contraction.

For Kent, the figures land in some sensitive places. Distribution is central to the county’s economy: the Port of Dover and the Eurotunnel terminal at Folkestone sit at the heart of UK-continental freight, and logistics businesses run along the M2 and M20 corridors. A minus 20 per cent balance in distribution implies weaker activity for hauliers and warehousing operators in the county. Manufacturing — food and drink processing, engineering, pharmaceuticals — faces the steepest national decline in the survey.

Consumer services, down 16 per cent in the latest tweet figures and 36 per cent in the quarter-to-May survey, matter directly to Kent’s visitor economy. Hotels, restaurants, leisure attractions and retail centres from Canterbury to Margate depend on household spending that the data suggest is under sustained pressure.

The CBI and surveyed firms point to accelerating cost pressures, falling profitability and depressed margins as the drivers. Firms across services expected volumes to keep falling in the next quarter, with consumer services forecast at minus 43 per cent on a balance basis — extending what the CBI describes as flat or falling volumes stretching back to March 2022.