OBR to Publish 50-Year UK Public Finance Forecast on 7 July 2026

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s 2026 Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report will set out long-term scenarios for UK tax, spending and debt, with findings that could shape funding for Kent’s councils, NHS services and local infrastructure for decades to come.

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What the OBR Is About to Tell Us

For most people in Kent, the words “fiscal sustainability report” probably don’t set the pulse racing. But the document being published on 7 July 2026 by the Office for Budget Responsibility could quietly shape everything from how much council tax you pay in Maidstone to whether flood defences along the Medway get funded in the years ahead.

The OBR — the UK’s independent fiscal watchdog, accountable to Parliament rather than to any single minister — announced the publication on its official X account.

The 2026 Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report, known as the FRS, will map out scenarios for UK tax, public spending and government debt across a 50-year horizon. That’s not a typo. Fifty years. The idea is to give Parliament, ministers and the public a clear-eyed view of whether the public finances are on a sustainable path — and what risks could knock them off course.

Why This Report Exists

The OBR is required by law to assess the long-term sustainability of the public finances at least twice every two years. Reforms to the UK’s fiscal framework — including what’s known as the “fiscal lock” — have since tightened that obligation, requiring an annual sustainability report. The FRS is how the OBR meets that duty.

It’s not just an academic exercise. HM Treasury uses OBR analysis, including the FRS, as a core input for budget decisions. There’s no separate official government forecast — ministers rely on what the OBR produces.

The 2025 edition of the report examined risks from the public sector balance sheet, climate change and the pensions system. The 2026 report should update those long-term projections recent economic developments.

The Numbers Already Painting a Difficult Picture

Even before the 50-year scenarios land, the OBR’s March 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook gives a sense of the pressure on the public finances. Public sector net borrowing is forecast to fall from £133 billion — that’s 4.3% of GDP — in 2025-26 down to £59 billion, or 1.6% of GDP, by 2030-31. That’s the central forecast. But there’s real uncertainty baked in: OBR modelling puts a 60% probability that borrowing in 2030-31 could land anywhere between a surplus of £43 billion and a deficit of £152 billion.

Debt is also elevated. Public sector net debt is projected to rise from 94.5% of GDP in 2025-26 to a peak of 96.5% in 2028-29, before easing slightly to 95% by 2030-31. And debt interest has reached its highest level since the 1980s, driven by higher global interest rates — a direct consequence of the rapid succession of shocks the UK has absorbed since 2020, including the pandemic, the energy crisis and the sharp rise in borrowing costs.

What the Government Says

Ministers have been clear that they view the FRS as central to long-term fiscal planning. According to the government’s formal response to the 2025 report, the analysis informs decisions to improve sustainability and manage risks — including reforms to the fiscal framework and commitments to protect capital spending.

The government has reported an increase in departmental capital spending of over £120 billion across this Parliament compared with previous plans. The OBR has estimated that if this investment is sustained, it could raise GDP by around 0.4% after 10 years and by 1.4% over 50 years. Those are the kinds of long-run figures the FRS is designed to scrutinise.

Yet some independent analysts and opposition voices have questioned whether governments fully act on OBR warnings. They point to persistently high debt levels and the UK’s exposure to interest rate rises as evidence that risk management has sometimes fallen short, and may use the 2026 FRS to press for more concrete long-term reforms to tax and spending.

A Watchdog for the Whole Country — Including Kent

The OBR’s remit covers the whole of the UK, and the FRS findings filter down to every corner of it — including here in Kent.

That matters because the long-term spending scenarios the report sets out for health, social care, pensions, transport and education directly shape the funding available to bodies like Kent County Council, Medway Council and NHS Kent and Medway Integrated Care Board. If the FRS highlights significant pressure on public finances over the coming decades, future governments may look again at local government funding formulas or business rates — both of which affect Kent’s ability to pay for local services.

Climate-related fiscal risks are another area to watch. Kent’s coastline, the Thames Estuary and the Medway are all exposed to flooding and coastal erosion, and the extent to which national government funds resilience schemes in these areas will partly depend on how fiscal risk is assessed and prioritised at the national level.

The 2026 FRS report will be laid before Parliament on 7 July 2026.

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Key Takeaways

• The OBR will publish its 2026 Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report on 7 July 2026, setting out 50-year scenarios for UK tax, spending and debt
• UK public sector net debt is currently projected to peak at 96.5% of GDP in 2028-29, with significant uncertainty around future borrowing paths, according to the OBR’s March 2026 forecast
• The report is a statutory requirement and feeds directly into HM Treasury budget decisions, meaning its findings on long-term fiscal pressures have real consequences for public services across the country

What This Means for Kent Residents

For households and businesses across Kent — from Folkestone to Faversham, Thanet to Tunbridge Wells — this report is worth paying attention to when it lands on 7 July. The long-term spending projections it contains will influence future funding settlements for Kent County Council and Medway Council, potentially affecting everything from road maintenance and adult social care to school budgets and public transport. If you’re a homeowner near the coast or a flood-prone area of the county, the climate risk sections are above all relevant, as national decisions on funding for flood defences and coastal resilience schemes are shaped by exactly this kind of analysis. Kent businesses should also take note: the FRS’s findings on fiscal sustainability and long-term economic stability feed into the investment and infrastructure decisions that determine whether major transport and development projects in the county get the green light. The full report will be available through the OBR’s official website from 7 July 2026.