Business volumes fell at a modest pace in the three months to September 2026, recovering from a sharp second-quarter drop, though firms expected little change in activity over the following quarter.
The Confederation of British Industry’s Financial Services Survey recorded a business-volume balance of -5 for the three months to September 2026 — a marked recovery compared with the -58 balance reported for the three months to June. A weighted balance represents the difference between the percentage of firms reporting an increase and the percentage reporting a decrease, so a reading of -5 indicates that slightly more firms still reported falling volumes than rising ones, but by a far narrower margin than before.
The figures show that the sector has not returned to growth. But the pace of deterioration has slowed considerably. The survey, conducted between 1 and 17 September 2026, drew responses from 63 firms.
Firms’ actual profitability balance in the third quarter came in at −6, improving sharply from −65 in June, while the expected profitability balance for the following quarter rose to +35 — suggesting that financial performance could strengthen further even without a comparable pick-up in activity levels.
Bank of England regional contacts described business and financial services activity in September 2026 as modest and uneven, with uncertainty continuing to weigh on capital markets, mergers and acquisitions, and commercial property transactions — a picture broadly consistent with the CBI’s own findings.
It’s worth keeping the survey’s scope in mind. The CBI Financial Services Survey measures reported sentiment and activity among participating firms; it is not an official measure of financial services output or gross domestic product, which the Office for National Statistics tracks separately.
No verified policy or legislative change was identified as a direct cause of the movement between the second and third quarters.
Source: @CBItweets