UK Population Set to Hit 71 Million by 2034 as Migration Drives Growth

The UK’s population will swell to 71 million by mid-2034, up from 69.3 million today, according to new projections from the Office for National Statistics.

For their part, the forecast represents a 1.7 million increase over the next decade. But it masks a dramatic shift in how Britain’s population is growing.

Migration Takes Centre Stage

Net migration now drives almost all population growth. Natural change — births minus deaths — contributed just 16,200 people in the year to mid-2024.

That’s a stark departure from historical patterns. Since 2020, migration has shouldered the burden as birth rates plummet and the population ages.

Birth numbers hit their lowest point in at least 42 years at 662,100 in mid-2024. Deaths fell to 645,900 — the lowest since before the COVID-19 pandemic struck in 2019.

The ONS bases its projections on average net migration of 340,000 people annually from mid-2027 onwards. Under higher migration scenarios of 525,000 per year, the 2037 population could be 2.4 million higher than the central forecast.

England Leads the Pack

England recorded the fastest growth at 1.2% in the year to mid-2024. Scotland managed 0.7%, Wales 0.6%, and Northern Ireland 0.4%.

The 755,300 increase from mid-2023 to mid-2024 represents a 1.1% growth rate nationwide. It marks the second-largest annual numerical increase in over 75 years.

Britain’s population has already grown by roughly 8.2 million since 2000. The trend shows no signs of slowing, despite declining fertility rates across developed nations.

The Numbers Behind the Projections

ONS statisticians warn their forecasts depend heavily on migration assumptions. Political changes or economic shocks could alter the trajectory markedly.

Without migration, the UK population would actually decline. Natural change has turned negative in some recent periods, reflecting long-term demographic shifts across Western Europe.

The South East region, which includes Kent, experienced lower growth rates than the national average in mid-2024. But London’s proximity means the county often feels the ripple effects of national population trends.

Key Takeaways

• UK population will grow from 69.3 million to 71 million between 2024-2034
• Net migration accounts for almost all growth as birth rates hit 42-year lows
• England leads regional growth at 1.2%, while natural population change contributes just 16,200 people annually

What This Means for Kent Residents

Population growth on this scale will increase demand for housing, healthcare, and school places across the South East, including Kent. Local councils should prepare for additional pressure on services, above all in areas with good transport links to London where new residents often settle. Businesses in construction, healthcare, and education may find expanded opportunities, while existing residents should expect continued competition for housing and potential strain on GP surgeries and local infrastructure.